66% of GDP by 2030Stock market capitalisation — 66% of GDP by 2030
Market cap target from Decree No. 309A national target from Presidential Decree No. 309 — and the gap we measure every day.
What has to happen by 2030
The target is set as a share of GDP, so in absolute terms the required capitalisation grows together with the economy — more precisely, with nominal GDP. Note that even with zero real growth, nominal GDP rises by the rate of inflation, and so does the absolute size of the 66% target.
The figures below are recalculated for the scenario selected on the chart.
For comparison: in its strategy “Development of the Russian capital market 2025–2030”, NAUFOR estimates that the market needs to reach RUB 174 trn by 2030 and to place roughly RUB 1.28 trn a year — while the federal project “Financial market development” targets RUB 4.5 trn of public placements over the whole period, and organic growth at a key rate of 7.5–8.5% delivers about RUB 96 trn by 2030, less than half the target.
How we calculate it
The national target requires the value of all Russian shares to reach two thirds of GDP. Capitalisation is taken from Moscow Exchange data, GDP from Rosstat. Forecast values are derived from the Ministry of Economic Development scenarios.
The methodology for the indicator “Stock market capitalisation relative to GDP” was approved by Order No. 37 of the Ministry of Finance of Russia dated 5 February 2025 under the federal project “Financial market development”. We reproduce the exchange’s methodology.
Numerator — capitalisation
Moscow Exchange defines it as the market price multiplied by the total number of issued shares of each class. That is a sum across the entire list of traded securities, not across an index.
capitalisation = Σ (shares issued × price) across all Russian issuers’ shares- ordinary
- preferred
- full issue, not free float
- not just the MOEX Index
- bonds excluded
Denominator — GDP
GDP at current prices (nominal) for the same year as capitalisation. The forecast is built on nominal growth: 1.5% real growth with a 5% deflator is 6.5% nominal.
Why not just the MOEX Index constituents
The MOEX Index holds 46 securities, roughly 80% of capitalisation. Measuring “market capitalisation” by them alone is not possible: the national project indicator covers the whole list of shares. Today that is 255 securities in the main trading mode.
GDP scenarios
In its May 2026 forecast the Ministry of Economic Development assumes real growth of 0.4% (2026), 1.4% (2027), 1.9% (2028) and 2.4% (2029), with nominal GDP “above RUB 270 trn” in 2029. The base scenario is calibrated to that figure; the conservative and optimistic ones differ by ±1.5 pp of nominal growth.
Beyond 2029 the forecast is a linear continuation of those growth rates.
Sources and exact wording
Every claim on this page rests on a primary source with a link to the official publication. Quotations are given in the original Russian: a translation of a decree is not the decree.
Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly
«Повторю: российскому фондовому рынку необходимо усилить свою роль как источника инвестиций. Его капитализация к 2030 году должна удвоиться по сравнению с нынешним уровнем и составить 66 процентов ВВП.»
“Let me repeat: the Russian stock market must strengthen its role as a source of investment. Its capitalisation should double by 2030 against the current level and reach 66 percent of GDP.”
The first public announcement of the target. The “current level” was 32.7% of GDP at the end of 2023.
Presidential Decree No. 309, clause 6, sub-clause “e”
«…обеспечение роста капитализации фондового рынка не менее чем до 66 процентов валового внутреннего продукта к 2030 году и до 75 процентов валового внутреннего продукта к 2036 году…»
“…ensuring growth of stock market capitalisation to no less than 66 percent of gross domestic product by 2030 and to 75 percent of gross domestic product by 2036…”
A target indicator of the national goal “A sustainable and dynamic economy”. This is the legally binding wording, not the address.
Indicator methodology (Ministry of Finance Order No. 37)
“Stock market capitalisation relative to GDP” is an indicator of the national project “An effective and competitive economy” and of the federal project “Financial market development” within it.
Capitalisation — Moscow Exchange
«Рыночная капитализация акций компаний определяется как произведение рыночной цены, рассчитанной на последний торговый день квартала, на общее количество выпущенных акций каждой категории (типа).»
“The market capitalisation of a company’s shares is the market price calculated for the last trading day of the quarter multiplied by the total number of issued shares of each class (type).”
Annual chart points come from the exchange’s quarterly archive (2011–2025). The current value is the daily total from the open MOEX ISS API.
GDP — Rosstat
GDP at current prices: RUB 174.3 trn (2023), RUB 202.3 trn (2024), RUB 214.3 trn (2025). Rosstat revises the series, and we update the values as refined publications appear.
GDP forecast — Ministry of Economic Development
Base scenario: growth of 0.4% (2026), 1.4% (2027), 1.9% (2028), 2.4% (2029); nominal GDP exceeds RUB 270 trn in 2029.
Feasibility assessment — NAUFOR
“Development of the Russian capital market 2025–2030”: reaching 66% requires capitalisation of RUB 174 trn, and the market needs to raise at least RUB 23.3 trn, about RUB 8 trn of it through IPOs.
Questions and answers
What exactly counts as “stock market capitalisation”?
The total market value of all issued shares of Russian issuers admitted to trading: the price of a security multiplied by its issue size, summed across the whole list. Ordinary and preferred shares are counted separately, free float is not applied, and bonds are excluded from the indicator.
Why can’t it be measured by the MOEX Index?
The index is a subset of 46 of the most liquid securities, roughly 80% of capitalisation. The national project indicator covers the market as a whole, so an index-based calculation would understate the result and would not match the official publications of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance.
Where do the discrepancies in media figures come from?
From two places: a different capitalisation date (year-end, quarter-end, current day) and a different GDP year in the denominator. For example, capitalisation of RUB 53 trn at the end of 2024 gives 31% when divided by 2023 GDP and 26% when divided by 2024 GDP. The second is correct.
How is the GDP forecast for 2026–2030 built?
The base scenario is calibrated to the May 2026 forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development; the conservative and optimistic scenarios differ by ±1.5 percentage points of nominal growth. This is our own calculation, not an official ministry forecast, and it is shown on the chart as a dashed line.
What happens after 2030?
Decree No. 309 sets a second point: no less than 75% of GDP by 2036. It is not plotted, so as not to stretch the axis — but it means that after 2030 the market has to keep growing faster than the economy.
See what this capitalisation is made of
The Yasno market map shows all 255 securities of the main trading mode: tile size is the issue capitalisation, colour is the price change.
This page is for information only and is not individual investment advice. Forecast values are Yasno’s own calculation from public data and the stated scenarios; actual results may differ. Yasno is not affiliated with Moscow Exchange, Rosstat or any government body.